Cup and Handle
↑ Bullish ContinuationRounded base, small dip, breakout higher
Grade any ticker — conviction score, technicals, fundamentals, and a contract grader. 139 curated tickers, refreshed daily.
139 curated tickers
Where the next trade comes from — what's hot, what's lining up, what's on the calendar.
Context for the trade — who's holding what, what the tape's been doing, where the macro is.
Grade any ticker top to bottom — then grade the exact contract you're eyeing.
Or jump anywhere with the tab strip above · press ⌘K for the command palette.
An AIi-written market digest, refreshed hourly with each build — the overnight setup at the open, where the tape stands mid-session, and the closing read after 4 pm ET. Ticker chips are clickable. Not financial advice.
Every ticker the site tracks. Click any card to grade options on it. Prices refresh live every 30s while this tab is open.
The stories currently driving capital — AI capex, GLP-1, tariffs, rotations. Each sector tab opens to its overview — whose grade is the average of the industry-group grades inside it — then the sub-industry narratives. Every story is placed on its 6-stage lifecycle (catalysts → amplification → validation → peak → challenges → collapse), rated on a fundamentals-vs-hype gauge, and broken into bull / base / bear cases, with a Watch for narrative shift panel of the red flags that would break the thesis.
See the full 4-pillar grade & conviction for any of the tracked tickers — not just today’s top picks.
Already own a call or put? Enter it below and get a hold / trim / sell / wait read — priced live and judged against the full picture: the engine’s current grade, the AI news take, the chart pattern, sector narrative, entry-timing, and the same premium take-profit / stop the track record uses. Tracked tickers only. Not financial advice.
A cross-sectional grading system. Every tracked name is scored on five components — four asset pillars (Fundamentals, Technicals, Mechanicals, Narrative) plus an Entry-timing read — and those scores are standardized against the rest of the universe this build. A grade therefore means “strong relative to its peers right now,” not a fixed number: the names at the top of that ranking that also clear an absolute quality floor become the actionable list. The list is deliberately allowed to be short, or empty, on a poor day — the engine would rather hold cash than pad it. Each card has a Recommendation ⇄ Grade toggle — flip to Grade to audit every signal behind the score — plus a named entry strategy, a layered exit ladder, and a same-sector peer comparison. The Track record tab marks past picks to market (modeled option P&L).
The five components. Each name’s grade is the sum of four asset pillars plus an entry-timing read. The per-name continuous signals (growth rates, ratios, RSI level, relative volume…) are standardized against the rest of the universe this build rather than scored on fixed thresholds, so “cheap / fast-growing / overbought” recalibrate every refresh; discrete events and the market-wide signals below keep fixed scores.
Fundamentals (10 signals). Earnings surprise (beat/miss >25% ±2, 10-24% ±1), EPS growth YoY +1 / -2, revenue growth YoY +1 / -2, analyst price target ±1, analyst rating changes ±2 (net of recent upgrades vs downgrades over ~90 days), P/E vs sector median ±1, guidance (raised +3, in line +2, lowered -3), major contract / deal +2 / -3 (incl. a bank’s lead-underwriter mandate on a marquee IPO/M&A), free cash flow TTM ±1, net-margin trend ±1. Is the business getting better or worse?
Technicals (11 signals). RSI movement ±1, RSI reading ±3 (contrarian — 75+ overbought -3 / 25 or below oversold +3, the oversold credit only with a reversal bar), MACD ±1, a 3-day-plus streak ±1, confirmed 20/50/100D support-resistance breaks (±1/±1/±2), the 52-week read (within 5% of the high -1 / low +1, contrarian), volume confirmation ±1 (relative volume ≥1.3x +1, <0.8x -1), the moving-average stack as one read (above the majority of the 20/50/100D SMAs +1, below -1), and an AI-read chart pattern (±1 confirmed, 0 while still forming). What is the chart doing?
Mechanicals (8 signals). Unusual options flow ±1, open-interest call/put skew ±1, short interest ±1 (squeeze setup +1 / rising -1 / falling +1), unusual underlying volume ±1, SPY flows ±1 (≥±0.6%), put/call ratio extreme (contrarian: P/C >1.15 fear → +2, <0.65 greed → -2), VIX tracking (rising & >25 = -2, falling from an elevated ≥20 = +1), VIX spot (<15 complacency -1, >35 capitulation +2, contrarian — needs a per-name reversal bar). What are options & the broad market doing?
Narrative (8 signals). AI-read news catalysts (good +2 / bad -3, asymmetric — one sentiment read is noisy so good news is weighted lighter), sector tail/headwind ±2 (faded by lifecycle & hype), social sentiment ±1, media coverage (informational, 0 — not double-counted), macro tail/headwinds +1 / -2, DXY 1-day move (≥0.9%: strong dollar -2 / weak +1), 10-year yield 1-day move (≥13 bps: rising -2 / falling +1). What story is driving it?
Entry timing (the 5th component, -8 … +4). Asset quality aside, is now a good moment? It reads confirmed daily bars for the two dominant ways trades fail — catching a falling knife and chasing an extended top (each a flat -8) — and credits the setups we want (a confirmed breakout on volume, or a healthy pullback to the 20-day average with momentum turning back up) up to +4. It also docks rich premium (high implied vol vs the name’s own history) and an inverted vol term structure, and it tightens when the broad tape is fighting the trade. This folds straight into the total, so a badly-timed name drops below the bar on its own — without ever flipping the side.
How the market tape moves the picks. Macro enters two ways: as direct signals on every name (above), and as a market regime that changes the engine’s whole posture. The regime is a cross-asset gauge — the VIX, the dollar (DXY), long yields, a commodity / war-shock axis (crude + gold), the Fed path, a geopolitical-news read, inflation / jobs, and CNN Fear & Greed — surfaced in the expandable Market tape panel above the list. The fast price axes refresh live while the tab is open (so a shock like an oil spike or a peace-deal vol-crush moves the tape within seconds); the slow news / data axes carry from the last build, and on a recovery the headline regime holds the more defensive read until a fresh build confirms it (no whipsaw).
• The VIX (fear gauge). Rising and above 25 docks -2; falling back from an elevated level adds +1 (vol relief); sub-15 complacency is -1; a spike above 35 (capitulation) flips contrarian-bullish +2, but only once a name’s own chart confirms a turn (no catching the knife).
• Bonds (the 10-year yield). A sharp one-day jump (≥13 bps) docks -2 across the board — rising yields pressure growth and long-duration risk assets; a sharp fall adds +1.
• The dollar (DXY). A ≥0.9% one-day rise is a -2 headwind (a strong dollar squeezes multinationals and risk assets); a fall is +1.
• A sell-off (risk-off regime). When the S&P drops about a percent or more and the VIX is elevated or rising, the engine flips to risk-off and several things happen at once: the bearish macro signals pull most grades down; entry timing turns defensive (a long bought into a falling tape is penalized and the falling-knife thresholds tighten ~25%, so more longs drop below the bar); the tactical-put path opens — bearish-leaning names that don’t clear the long bar can ship as reduced-size puts on a clean breakdown, which is how a long-biased universe produces shorts; and sizing holds more cash. The mirror — a firm up day on a calm VIX — is risk-on, a tailwind where the engine leans long. So a calm tape favors a longer, call-heavy list sized up; a sell-off shrinks it, demands cleaner entries, tilts it toward puts, and sizes it down.
Tiers & sizing. Tiers are relative — roughly the top 5% of the universe by conviction this build grade Strong (Very High), the band out to about the top 12% are actionable Call/Put (High), the rest are No Trade — but a name must also clear an absolute floor (about ±16 Strong / ±12 actionable), so on a weak tape where nothing clears it the list is short or empty by design. Size is risk-based, not flat: each pick is weighted inverse to the premium it would lose to its stop (delta, theta over the hold, and a modeled vol-drop), tilted by conviction, and the book’s overall gross is trimmed when the recent realized track record is negative.
Suggested contract. A near-the-money option — delta 0.45-0.65 (target ~0.55), which carries far less theta and IV-crush fragility than a cheap far-OTM lottery ticket — with IV <200%, ≥14 days to expiry (roster picks ≥21), standard monthly expirations, a tight spread, real open interest, and premium capped at the greater of $35/share or 12% of spot. The “In plain English” panel translates the bet into beginner terms.
Entry & exit plan. Each pick matches one of six named strategies (Pullback to Confluence, Breakout + Retest, Moving-Average Pullback, Support + Confirmation, RSI + Divergence, Volume Breakout) with scale-in tranches at confluence prices, and a layered exit ladder — meaningful levels above and below spot, each with an action and its reasoning. The hard stop is volatility-aware (a multiple of ATR, so ordinary noise doesn’t shake the trade out), and the track record additionally cuts in premium terms (a fixed % loss of the option), since a symmetric move on the stock is a very asymmetric move on the contract. Triggers also cover earnings-in-window IV-crush risk, stretched RSI, and time stops.
How to read it — and what it isn’t. Because the grade is relative, it ranks names against each other; it does not promise an absolute edge. The engine is candidly research / unproven — its directional signal has not yet shown a validated edge on forward data, and the track record’s option P&L is modeled (there is no live options-price feed). Buying a call or put risks the entire premium. None of this is financial advice; treat the picks as a starting watchlist, not a recommendation to trade.
Picks rebuild from scratch on every refresh. Each pick clears the conviction ranking and an absolute quality floor, and has a tradeable near-the-money contract that fits the suggested-contract criteria above. The list can be short, or empty, on a poor day.
Every Top Pick shipped each refresh is logged and marked to market against each pick’s own take-profit / cut levels. Use the tabs below to switch between the plain-English engine summary, the scorecard, the live Top 10 roster, the activity logs, and the open / resolved picks.
A pick resolves when the underlying reaches its take-profit (win), hits its cut (loss), expires (graded vs. breakeven), or hits a 14-day time-stop. The Summary tab is the rules-based engine report: an overall health verdict, why the losers lost (direction miss vs. theta bleed), why the winners won, which segments are working vs. lagging, and a specific "what to fix next" list — all computed from the resolved record, no AI. The win rate by tier asks whether higher-conviction scores actually win more. Top 10 — picks in & out shows the current 10-name roster, what changed in the 4 pillars since the last refresh, what dropped out and what replaced it, and a rules-based upgrade/downgrade read on each name (click a row for the full rubric); Recent crossings is the chronological log of names crossing the conviction bar on or off the actionable set; Grade changes logs every ticker whose grade moves up or down (and why); each pick’s Day 0 / 2wk / 1mo checkpoints show whether the price moved the way the score predicted. The Equity, Breakdowns, Simulator, and Monte Carlo tabs add a modeled-dollar profitability lens — an equity curve + drawdown, per-DTE / PoP / thesis / conviction tables and cross-tabs, a hypothetical $1M risk-managed book, and a bootstrap of the outcome distribution. Build cadence (~3 checks/day), not intraday.
No Top-10 roster snapshot yet — it appears after the next daily refresh.
No grade changes or conviction-bar crossings logged yet.
No open or resolved picks yet.
Track record is informational, not a performance claim: it follows the underlying stock against each pick’s own take-profit / cut levels, not the realised option P&L, and samples only at build time. The $ profitability, equity curve, Simulator, and Monte Carlo views are modeled and hypothetical — Black-Scholes marks on a notional book, not realised fills. Not financial advice.
A Finviz-style market map of our curated tickers. Each tile is sized by market cap and colored either by today's % change (deeper green for bigger gainers, deeper red for bigger losers) or by relative volume (saturation tracks how heavy the volume is, hue still shows direction). Grouped by sector. Type in the search box to highlight a name, scroll to zoom (or use the zoom controls), drag to pan when zoomed in, and click a tile to jump to that ticker. ETFs are surfaced on the Bonds & USD tab.
A month-at-a-time view of every dated market event, opening on the current month — use ‹ / › to step between months (or Today to jump back), and tap any day to see its full details below the grid. It tracks: confirmed earnings dates (with AM/PM session tagging) for every curated ticker, ticker-specific catalysts (FDA dates, contract decisions, product launches, court rulings, investor days — extracted from recent news), structured economic-report releases (NFP, Unemployment, JOLTS, CPI, PPI) with Actual / Previous / Consensus values, upcoming FOMC meetings, and the current effective Fed Funds rate plus CME FedWatch hike/hold/cut probabilities at four lookbacks. Ticker chips are clickable.
A month-at-a-time record of how the three major index ETFs — SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100) and IWM (Russell 2000) — closed each trading day: green for an up day, red for a down day, with the close-to-close % change in every cell. Toggle between the three indexes, step months with ‹ / › (or Today to jump back), and read the per-month tally — green vs red days and the month’s compounded return — beneath the grid. Today’s cell updates through the session and finalizes at the 4 pm ET close; history accumulates from each build. Not financial advice.
Cross-market lead-lag signals. Asian cash markets and FX trade and close before the US opens, so an overnight move in a foreign peer is a leading read on its US counterpart — Samsung & SK Hynix selling off in Seoul flags memory names like MU; a yen-carry unwind in Tokyo flags broad US risk. Beyond tech, commodities and rates drive their own sectors: crude (energy & fuel-heavy logistics), copper (industrials), gold/silver vs the dollar (metals), nat gas (power), long yields (banks, homebuilders, TLT) and bitcoin (crypto-levered names). Each tile shows a symbol’s move — the completed-session change for Asian cash markets, or the live overnight gap vs the prior settle for the 24h instruments (futures, FX, commodities, crypto) and the cash vol/yield indices — its current level, and the US tickers it leads (click a tag to grade it). Markets that close before the US open are genuine leading reads; concurrent (Europe, cash VIX/yields) and 24h tiles are tagged as co-movement, not a lead. Captured at build time — the 9:30 ET build is the first to see the just-closed Asian session.
Correlation (r) and sensitivity (β) are computed from up to 150 trading days of daily-return overlap (sample size n is shown — faint / asterisked low-n fits are noisier); β × the peer’s move is a rough implied read, not a forecast. Yield moves are shown in basis points. Foreign closes can lag the US session by up to a day. Not financial advice.
Block/sweep flow: 5–50% OTM contracts that picked up at least 2,000 contracts of volume this hour (4,000 if expiring within 2 weeks) with vol > OI. The kind of single-shot directional buying that often signals informed positioning. Each chip shows the volume-to-OI multiple (e.g. 4×, the canonical unusual read) and the premium that hit this hour; the bar above sums call vs put premium for a directional lean. A 🔥 ×N badge means the same contract has flagged that many times in the last 5 trading days — recurring conviction. Hourly scan, front 2 expirations.
Hourly volume vs the U-shaped 25/14/11/11/14/25% intraday distribution: tickers trading at ≥1.2× their expected hour-bucket volume are flagged. At/after 16:00 ET, full-day volume ≥1.3× the 20D average flags as EOD. When spot crosses the 20D support or resistance line, the break is confirmed against the same hour's vol ratio — Strong Alert (≥1.3×), Watch (0.8–1.3×), or Likely Fakeout (<0.8×).
Each row reads Vol actual / expected · ratio — shares traded in that bucket vs. the bucket's share of the 20-day average, and the multiple between them. The trailing % is the price change across the bucket. A flag leans bullish when price is up on heavy volume (real demand) and bearish when price is down on heavy volume (real selling pressure).
Each card also carries a follow-the-case verdict — whether the volume evidence says to follow the bull or bear case (heavy volume confirmed the move), wait for confirmation (heavy participation but no decisive direction yet), or not follow it (a weak move or a likely fakeout, prone to fading). Expand a ticker to read the verdict's reasoning in full.
The build's current ★ Top Picks are pinned in their own group at the top so you can track flow on just those names; the rest are grouped by sector and collapsed by default — click a sector header to open it, then a ticker to expand its hour-by-hour breakdown with the reasoning. Each row's one-line summary shows its strongest flag, bullish/bearish lean, peak hour ratio, and EOD move, and a six-bar intraday volume profile — one bar per session hour (open → close), taller where volume ran hotter and tinted green/red by that hour's price direction — so you can see when the heavy tape hit (the open, midday, or into the close) without expanding. Group by sector and Expand all toggle the layout.
Dealer gamma exposure per strike and expiration — Γ × OI × 100 × spot² × 1%, the dollar-gamma each contract adds for a 1% move, with Black-Scholes gamma computed from the contract's implied vol. Calls add positive gamma (dealers buy dips / sell rips — stabilizing); puts add negative gamma (dealers amplify moves). Net GEX at a cell is call GEX − put GEX. Rows are strikes centered on spot; columns are expirations, near-term first, with a Net Σ column beside each strike summing its gamma across the shown expirations — the aggregate profile whose peaks are the call wall (CW) and put wall (PW), tagged in-grid. Total net GEX > 0 pins price toward the largest walls; < 0 means moves get amplified. The gamma flip (dashed amber line) is the spot level where net dealer gamma crosses zero. Open interest is end-of-session data (published next morning), so this reflects the prior session's positioning; only spot moves intraday, so the grid recomputes at the live spot while the market is open.
Above the gamma flip (positive gamma): market makers are long gamma. To hedge their options portfolios they act as a dampener to the market — they buy dips and sell rallies, which creates a highly stable, rangebound, and mean-reverting environment.
Below the gamma flip (negative gamma): market makers are short gamma. To hedge, they are forced to sell into weakness and buy into strength (trend-following). This behavior can rapidly accelerate price swings, leading to flash-crash-style selloffs or explosive, volatile rallies.
Top 12 highest open-interest strikes (calls + puts) across this week's and next week's expirations, laid out as an options ladder — calls and puts grouped on their own sides, each sorted closest-to-spot first and extending outwards. Each ticker carries a Gamma Squeeze Score (0–5): heavy near-the-money call OI · C/P ratio ≥ 2:1 · call wall Vol/OI ≥ 1.5× · spot within 10% of the call wall · aggressive ask-side call flow today. A score of 4–5 flags a potential setup. Strikes with OI > 1000 get a chip; ΔOI day-over-day chips fire at +30% (new buying) and +100% (very aggressive). Twice-daily scan: pre-market (~08:30 ET) and EOD (~19:00 ET).
Search a curated ticker to pull its full grade — the 4-pillar conviction score plus technicals, fundamentals, implied vol, news, and a live contract grader. The whole page regrades as the tape moves.
Pick a call or put, then dial in expiry and strike — the verdict regrades as you go. Or paste one straight from your broker in the card below.
Verdict + bullets are AI-generated from Yahoo's last-reported fundamentals and earnings. For information only — cross-check before trading.
Indicators are computed at build time from ~1 year of Yahoo daily closes. Use them as context for your option strike pick — they describe the stock, not the contract itself.
Term structure plots ATM (call/put average) IV for every expiration in the chain — rising left-to-right is contango, falling is backwardation. IV rank is today's nearest-30d ATM IV as a percentile of the prior ~18 months of daily snapshots; needs 60+ days of history before a rank is shown.
The verdict you see has two halves working together — a YES / NO buy panel that walks every signal we have, and a short mechanical verdict chip that grades just the contract structure (spread / delta / theta). The panel is the one to read carefully; the chip is a quick mechanical read.
This is the one that aims at profitable trades. It collects every reason in play — not just the first one to break — and lays them out so you can weigh the full picture:
Confidence rates how decisive the call is: Strong (aligned score ≥+3 or two-plus hard fails), Moderate (aligned score ≥+2), Tentative (clean mechanics, no opposing signals, but no positive conviction either). Take Tentative YES as a green light to consider, not to size in heavy.
A quick read of just spread + delta + theta:
A clear news tailwind or headwind can nudge an Acceptable verdict to Good or Poor based on the AI-summarized headline sentimenti (but only when no hard fails are in play).
Today’s daily volume vs the trailing 20-day average, paired with today’s 1-day price move, sorts the print into one of four buckets:
All thresholds are simple heuristics, not optimal strategies.
Paste numbers straight off Robinhood, Schwab, etc. — we strip $, %, commas, and size suffixes. IV / OI / volume are optional; without IV the Greeks are skipped.
Put 2–4 companies side by side — price, valuation (P/E, PEG, P/S), growth, margins, the analyst read and our 4-pillar grade — with the leader on each row highlighted, the % difference vs the first name on every other column, and a plain-language summary of how they stack up. Reads the same free data as the Grade tab.
Build multi-leg strategies — buy or sell calls and puts together. Pick a template or compose by hand, and we'll add up the greeks, sketch the expiration payoff, and score the structure against this ticker's technicals + IV rank.
Templates auto-populate the legs below using strikes nearest ATM and the nearest expiration. Tweak any leg afterwards.
Each leg prices off the live chain mid. Type a Price on any leg to use your own fill instead — the cost, breakeven and P/L update to match. Leave it blank to track the market mid.
Payoff is plotted at the nearest leg's expiration. For calendar spreads the far leg is repriced with Black-Scholes at that instant using its chain IV. Max gain / loss labelled "unlimited" when a naked leg leaves one side open.
Each ticker's current run of green or red daily closes. Streaks of 2+ days survive small counter days (a "tolerance bank" up to 1.5% cumulative, or up to 3 counter days in a row); a single counter day greater than 1.2%, hitting the 1.5% bank, or 4 counter days in a row breaks the run. Same-direction days heal the bank back to zero.
A 0–100 sentiment gauge built by CNN from seven equally-weighted indicators of US equity-market psychology. Low readings (extreme fear) have historically preceded rebounds; high readings (extreme greed) often mark overheated conditions. Refreshed each build from cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed.
Yields and DXY are taken from the last daily build. Each tile shows the 1-day move (basis points for yields, % for DXY) classified against the movement scale below, plus the 5-day trend. A chip flags moves that hit the alert thresholds (DXY ±0.6% or 10Y ±10 bps on a daily close).
CPI inflation & unemployment are monthly BLS prints (the tile shows the reference month) rather than live quotes. Hot or re-accelerating inflation and a deteriorating labor market (the unemployment tile's Sahm read — the 3-month average vs. its low over the prior year; ≥0.5pp is the classic recession-onset signal) feed the cross-asset macro regime that tilts Top Picks risk-off, alongside the VIX, dollar, yields, Fed path, commodity-shock and news axes.
A best-effort read of why today’s move matters (or doesn’t), beyond its size — correlated with the FedWatch hike/cut odds on the Calendar tab. It looks for the likely catalyst (a dated economic print, a day-over-day shift in rate-cut/hike odds, an imminent FOMC decision, a risk-off VIX spike) and names it. Deterministic and best-effort: it flags the suspected driver, not a certainty — pair with the news.
Reference bands for sizing a daily change. Small daily moves are normal market noise; notable / big / very-large moves usually signal a catalyst (CPI, FOMC, jobs report, geopolitical shock) and tend to push equity sentiment within days. Pair with volume and a news catalyst — a big move on low volume is less reliable than the same move on high volume.
| Asset | Normal | Notable | Big | Very large |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 0.2–0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7–1.0% | >1.0% |
| 10Y yield | < 8 bps | 8–10 bps | 10–15 bps | 15+ bps |
| 2Y yield | < 8 bps | 8–12 bps | 12–20 bps | 20+ bps |
| 30Y yield | < 8 bps | 8–10 bps | 10–15 bps | 15+ bps |
Weekly context. DXY weekly moves of 0.5–1.0% are meaningful; 1.5%+ is a strong trend signal. For the 10Y yield, weekly moves of 20–30 bps are significant and 40+ bps signal a clear regime shift. Sustained DXY moves of 2–3%+ over a month can shift the regime for multinationals and commodities.
Alert defaults. DXY ±0.6% on a daily close, or the 10Y yield ±10 bps on a daily close. Correlate with volume and a catalyst — moves with both behind them tend to follow through.
A primer on how Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY) shape stock-market behavior. US Treasuries are debt securities issued by the US government and are considered among the safest financial assets in the world. They influence borrowing costs globally, impact stock-market valuations, affect mortgage and loan rates, drive risk-on / risk-off behavior, and shape the strength of the US dollar.
| Type | Maturity | Interest payment |
|---|---|---|
| T-Bills | 4 weeks to 1 year | No coupon. Sold at discount, mature at face value. |
| T-Notes | 2 to 10 years | Semiannual interest payments. |
| T-Bonds | 20 to 30 years | Semiannual interest payments. |
Most sensitive to current Federal Reserve policy. Reacts quickly to Fed rate hikes or cuts, reflects short-term interest-rate expectations, and is closely tied to monetary policy.
Higher 2-year yields generally tighten financial conditions, hurt growth stocks and speculative assets, and make bonds more attractive relative to equities. Example: if the 2-year yields 5%, investors may prefer a guaranteed return over taking stock-market risk.
The benchmark yield and arguably the most important Treasury rate. Influences 30-year mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, stock valuations, consumer loans, and the discount rate used for equities.
Higher 10-year yields pressure stock valuations, increase borrowing costs, reduce future-earnings valuations, and tighten credit conditions.
Lower 10-year yields support growth stocks, encourage borrowing and investing, and improve liquidity conditions.
A gauge for long-term inflation expectations and fiscal sustainability. Sensitive to government deficits, long-term inflation expectations, pension and insurance demand, and global risk sentiment.
Higher 30-year yields can signal inflation concerns, fiscal stress, or weak demand for long-duration bonds.
Higher Treasury yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks. As yields rise, investors may move from stocks into bonds, borrowing becomes more expensive, corporate investment slows, credit conditions tighten, and interest on new loans increases.
Risk assets often struggle when Treasury yields rise rapidly, when the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, or when liquidity conditions tighten.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the strength of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Dollar strength has major effects on corporate earnings, commodity prices, emerging markets, global liquidity, and risk appetite.
Multinational earnings take a hit. Approximately 40% of S&P 500 revenue comes from overseas. A stronger dollar means foreign earnings convert into fewer US dollars, and reported earnings decline.
US exports become more expensive. American goods become less competitive globally — a headwind for exporters, industrial companies, and manufacturing sectors.
Commodities often fall. Commodities are priced in USD, so a stronger dollar typically pressures energy, materials, agriculture, and metals.
Emerging markets suffer. Borrowing in USD becomes more expensive — capital outflows, higher debt stress, and weakening foreign currencies follow.
Higher yields often accompany a stronger dollar. The combination makes risk assets less attractive.
Good for stocks. Supports earnings growth, global liquidity, and risk appetite.
Boosts multinational earnings. Foreign earnings convert into more US dollars — positive for large multinationals, technology companies, and global consumer brands.
US exports become cheaper. American goods become more competitive internationally.
Commodities often rise. A weaker dollar is a major tailwind for gold, industrials, materials, and energy.
Emerging markets & international stocks perform better. Foreign assets become worth more in USD terms — supportive for international equities, EM, and foreign currencies.
Easier global financial conditions. Encourages risk-on behavior across markets.
The relationship is not always perfectly inverse.
Strong growth periods. Sometimes stocks and the dollar rise together — this can occur during strong US economic growth.
Risk-off environments. Typically the dollar rises while stocks fall — investors seek safety in USD assets.
Gold is priced in USD. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers and less attractive globally.
Gold pays no yield. A stronger dollar often comes with higher interest rates and higher Treasury yields, which increases the opportunity cost of holding gold.
The dollar competes with gold as a safe haven. When investors seek safety, capital can flow into either USD or gold — a strengthening dollar often pressures gold prices.
Weak dollar — generally bullish for stocks, bullish for commodities, supportive of risk assets. Weak dollar + falling yields often supports strong bull-market rallies.
Strong dollar — generally bearish for stocks, tightens financial conditions, hurts risk assets. Strong dollar + rising Treasury yields can create severe market stress.
Aggregate capital expenditure (CapEx) for the seven mega-caps driving the AI buildout — MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, NVDA, AAPL, TSLA. CapEx is the cash they spend on property, plant & equipment (data centers, GPUs, networking), pulled straight from the cash-flow statement in their SEC filings. We total the latest full fiscal year vs. the year before — so you can see how much aggregate AI infrastructure spend has grown (or shrunk), and by how much — plus each name's trailing-12-month run-rate and CapEx as a share of revenue. The revenue check compares that spend against the group's combined revenue on the same fiscal years: total revenue, revenue growth vs. CapEx growth, and CapEx as a share of revenue — is the buildout outrunning the money coming in? Figures are as-filed; fiscal years differ by company.
Memory (DRAM) pricing from two independent angles. Wholesale spot is the price at which DRAM chips and modules change hands between vendors, module makers and brokers — the upstream signal that moves first when AI data-center demand soaks up supply. US retail tracks what a desktop DDR5 kit actually costs across major US retailers, by kit category. Rising RAM prices are a direct read on the AI hardware buildout (see the AI CapEx tab) — and a margin headwind for anyone buying memory. Spot data: TrendForce / DRAMeXchange; retail data: WhereIsMyRam. The 7d/30d spot changes accumulate from our own daily snapshots, so they deepen over time.
Spot prices are per chip/module in USD (session average); retail prices are per kit in USD (lowest in-stock offer / category average). Sources are scraped best-effort and can go stale. Not financial advice.
When a tracked company issues new debt, bonds, convertibles or shares — or launches a buyback — it usually hits the news cycle first. This feed scans each name's recent headlines for issuance language and pairs the flagged event with the hard dollar amount from its latest SEC filing, so you can size the raise. New debt/shares dilute or lever a balance sheet; a buyback does the opposite. Headlines are from the trailing few weeks; filed numbers lag by up to a quarter.
Quarterly institutional-holdings snapshot for the largest 13F filers ($5B+ AUM). Includes top reporting firms, marquee positions, the 20 biggest aggregate holdings across all filers, and rotation themes (most bought vs. most sold). 13F filings are released 45 days after quarter-end and exclude bonds, options details, and most international holdings.
Everything that matters for buying calls and puts — the concepts, the levers you actually control, and the habits that keep you in the game. Built to scan, not to read cover to cover.
start here
The right to buy 100 shares at a fixed price. You want this when you think the stock rises.
The right to sell 100 shares at a fixed price. You want this when you think the stock falls.
The price of the contract itself. 1 contract = 100 shares, so a "$2.00" option costs you $200.
The fixed price you'd buy or sell at if you exercised.
The deadline. After it, the option is worthless. "DTE" = days to expiration.
You almost always sell the option back before expiry — you rarely exercise.
where the strike sits
Intrinsic = the "real" value, how far in-the-money you already are. Extrinsic (time value) = everything you're paying for future possibility — and it's the part theta and IV destroy. An OTM option is 100% extrinsic, which is why it can rot to zero.
what moves your option's price
| Greek | Measures | What it means for a buyer | Hook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta | Price change per $1 stock move. Also ≈ the odds of expiring ITM. | Your direction exposure — usually the dominant driver of your P&L. | "speed" |
| Gamma | How fast delta itself changes. Highest when ATM. | Acceleration. Makes near-the-money options swing wildly. | "acceleration" |
| Theta | Value lost per day to time decay. | Almost always against you. Accelerates as expiration nears. | "the bleed" |
| Vega | Sensitivity to a 1-point move in IV. | Your volatility risk. High vega = exposed to IV collapsing. | "volatility" |
| Rho | Sensitivity to interest rates. | Minor on short trades — mostly safe to ignore. | "ignore-ish" |
the market's guess at movement
The market's expectation of how much a stock will move — not which direction. It's backed out of the option's price. High IV = expensive options; low IV = cheap. Bigger expected swings make options worth more.
Tells you if today's IV is high or low versus the stock's own past year. Low → buying is cheaper and safer. High → options are pricey and favor sellers. Check this before you buy.
Around earnings / binary events, IV inflates beforehand, then collapses the instant the news drops. You can be right on direction and still lose as IV deflates. A product announcement is a milder cousin — event-day IV that quietly fades, not a true crush.
can you actually get out?
The gap between buyers' and sellers' prices = your cost to transact. Tight = liquid & cheap. Wide = illiquid & a hidden tax every round trip.
How many contracts traded today. High volume = active right now = quick, fair fills.
How many contracts are currently open = the size of the existing crowd ready to take the other side.
Why it matters: getting in is easy; getting out is the problem. An illiquid option can trap you — forced to dump it below fair value, or no buyer at all near expiry. Stick to deep names (META, NVDA, SPY); obscure strikes and far-out expiries are where liquidity dries up.
strike & expiration
Cheap, explosive % gains, but 100% time value — decays fast and needs a big, fast move. Where beginners quietly lose.
Balanced cost. Highest gamma (most acceleration) and highest theta. Big swings both ways.
Pricier but behaves like the stock (high delta), decays slower, smaller % swings. Safer, less leveraged.
Cheap and fast — but theta is brutal and accelerates near the end. Can evaporate over a weekend.
Costs more, but slow decay and time for your thesis to play out.
The hard-learned rule: give yourself more time than you think you need. Being right but early still loses money if the option expires first.
execution timing · ET
Widest spreads, wildest prices. Market makers don't know fair value yet. Quotes can be stale. Wait 15–30 min for it to settle. Never market orders.
Thin volume, quiet ranges, calmest stretch. Reasonable spreads but little to act on.
Volume & volatility return as desks rebalance and traders close out. Late directional moves live here.
Always use limit orders near the mid. The big moves cluster at the open and power hour — but the open is also where fills are worst. Separate where the action is from where you can fill cleanly.
the part you control
the one that actually matters
Decide the maximum dollars a single trade can lose — before you enter — and size to it. Long options can go to zero, so survival is about never letting one trade hurt you badly. More accounts die from oversizing than from picking the wrong direction. This outranks every concept above.
the skill that compounds
When your option wins or loses, split the cause: delta (stock moved) · theta (time passed) · vega (IV shifted). Reach for the simplest explanation first — usually it's delta + theta, not an exotic vega story.
Log every trade: strike, expiration, entry price, IV at entry, your thesis, and why you exited. Recording IV at entry is what lets you prove (or rule out) a vega move later. The journal teaches you more than any guide.
REMEMBER · The Greeks aren't static — delta shifts as the stock moves (gamma), theta accelerates toward expiry, and vega shrinks as expiration nears. The option you hold a week later is a different instrument.
run it every time
The recurring ways buyers lose money — recognize them before they cost you.
The eight classic formations stonks flags on the intraday chart — drawn the way they actually look, with the tell, the trigger, and the trap for each. Built to eyeball, not to memorize.
reversal & continuation
Rounded base, small dip, breakout higher
Three peaks, the middle highest, tops out
Lower middle trough flips a downtrend bullish
Sharp rally, brief dip, trend resumes higher
Flat ceiling, rising floor, buyers win
Twin floors confirm a reversal higher
Twin peaks cap the rally and reverse it lower
Flat floor, falling highs, sellers win
where you'll see them
The Technicals and Top Picks / Grade tabs run an AI chart-pattern detector over each ticker's last ~month of 30-minute bars and label any of these eight it sees — as forming (the shape is two-thirds built, the decisive break hasn't happened) or confirmed (the break has happened). A confirmed bullish pattern nudges a borderline grade up; a bearish one nudges it down. This card is the human version: use it to sanity-check what the detector flags, or to spot a setup it hasn't caught yet.
stonks is a freemium options desk. Most of it is free to use right now — no account, no card. A focused set of members-only tools is unlocked with a premium Discord membership. Here's exactly what sits on each side of the line. Start browsing →
The whole app shell, every live quote/chain proxy, and the bulk of the research tabs are open to everyone. Premium adds the highest-signal, freshest, decision-grade layers — the stuff we'd charge for.
No account required — open the site and these are all live. Refreshed automatically through the trading day.
Search any tracked ticker for its full 4-pillar conviction grade — fundamentals, technicals, mechanicals, narrative, entry-timing & IV cost — alongside its technicals, fundamentals, implied-vol term structure, AI news take, and a live contract grader that scores any specific call/put on bid-ask spread, delta, and theta.
Per-ticker option chains, technicals (RSI/MACD/SMA/S&R/IV regime), Greeks, IV term structure, earnings history, and an AI news take — for every tracked symbol.
Earnings AM/PM sessions, macro releases (CPI, NFP, PPI, JOLTS), FOMC dates and live FedWatch probabilities — with countdowns and clickable tickers.
An entry-strategy engine that frames how to express a directional view with defined-risk option structures.
A Finviz-style map of the curated universe, sized by market cap and colored by performance or relative volume, with a live overlay, breadth ribbon, and ticker search.
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CNN's 7-indicator equity-market sentiment index, 0–100, with a redesigned gauge and a scrubbable history.
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A quarterly snapshot of the largest institutional filers — top positions, biggest aggregate holdings, and rotation themes.
Current green/red daily-close streaks for every ticker, a counter-day tolerance bank, rarity context, and a just-snapped mean-reversion strip.
Real-time spot, option chains, the live Fed Funds rate, and a "check a position you hold" pricer — the live data proxies are open to everyone.
A plain-language field guide to reading an option — what spread, delta, theta, and IV actually mean for the trade.
A reference of the common chart formations and what they tend to signal.
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